ÍNDICES DE PRECIPITAÇÃO EXTREMA PARA OS PERÍODOS ATUAL (1961-1990) E FUTURO (2011-2100) NA BACIA DO RIO TAQUARI-ANTAS, RS

Carina Krüger Bork; Andréa Souza Castro; Diuliana Leandro; Luciara Bilhalva Corrêa; Tirzah Moreira Siqueira

doi:10.5327/Z2176-947820170233

Authors

Carina Krüger Bork Universidade Federal de Pelotas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5468-6701
Andréa Souza Castro Universidade Federal de Pelotas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1989-684X
Diuliana Leandro Universidade Federal de Pelotas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-5550
Luciara Bilhalva Corrêa Universidade Federal de Pelotas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1686-5282
Tirzah Moreira Siqueira Universidade Federal de Pelotas https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6576-0217

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5327/Z2176-947820170233

Keywords:

precipitation projections; extreme events; climate models.

Abstract

The Taquari-Antas River basin region eventually suffers from climatic extremes such as droughts and intense precipitation. This study aimed to compare extreme precipitation rates between the current period (1961- 1990) and future ones (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) using annual precipitation projections for three points located in this basin, obtained from Global (MCG) and Regional Circulation Models (MCR), referring to the A1B climatic scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. For each point, ten different climatic projections generated by these models were considered. More expressive trends in the analyzed rates were detected for MCRs. Based on the rates obtained in this study, the region may be affected by the increase in extreme events of precipitation, mainly by the increasing of annual total precipitation, which can be verified by the higher number of days of R30mm index and higher cumulative precipitation in the R95p and R99p indices. Such changes may influence the economic, environmental and social sectors of the region.