MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS E O SETOR HIDROELÉTRICO BRASILEIRO: UMA ANÁLISE COM BASE EM MODELOS DO IPCC-AR5

Cleiton da Silva Silveira; Francisco de Assis Souza Filho; Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior; Luiz Martins de Araujo Junior; Samuellson Lopes Cabral

doi:10.5327/Z2176-947820180210

Authors

Cleiton da Silva Silveira Universidade da Integração Internacional da Lusofonia Afro-brasileira (UNILAB) https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6407-0989
Francisco de Assis Souza Filho Universidade Federal do Ceará https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5989-1731
Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Junior https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1558-8383
Luiz Martins de Araujo Junior Universidade Federal do Ceará https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6916-1564
Samuellson Lopes Cabral Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0156-0048

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5327/Z2176-947820180210

Keywords:

streamflow; hydropower sector; climate change.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to assess the climate change impacts on the annual streamflows of the brazilian hydropower sector by using six global models from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from 2011 and 2098. Streamflow from 21 relevant National Electric System Operator (ONS) stations from National Interconnected System (NIS) were generated through the hydrological model Soil Moisture Account Procedure (SMAP), while the streamflow from other stations that compose the NIS were obtained by linear regression. Annual mean streamflow anomalies and trend were analyzed in the period from 2011 to 2098. The IPCC-AR5 models showed that there is a greater possibility of reduction in annual streamflows in most of Brazil, except for the southern, where the models showed increases more than 5% during 2040–2069.