ASSESSING FUTURE SCENARIOS OF WATER AVAILABILITY USING CMPI5 HIGH RESOLUTION CLIMATE MODELS – CASE STUDY OF THE ALTO TIETÊ BASIN

Abstract

Global climate change and extreme climate variability directly affect the hydrological cycle and rainfall variability, which highlights the importance of studying climatic conditions as a support for water resource management in regions with low water availability, such as the Upper Tietê River Basin (Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Tietê – BHAT). This study aims to present a diagnosis for BHAT water availability conditions in future climate scenarios, based on the high-resolution models CMCC-CM, MIROC4h, ETA-MIROC5, and ETAHADGEM2- ES, for the time slices 2020-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099, in order to provide climate information for BHAT’s management. The main results showed a clear upward trend in the average annual temperatures. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the average annual increase was 0.5°C from 2006 to 2099. Precipitation showed high interannual variability without a specific defined trend. The average annual flow showed a slight positive trend in the period 2006–2099. However, it also presented a decrease in the monthly average flow in the wet period (13%) and an increase in the dry period (9.7%), compared to the historical data simulated for the time slice 2020–2040 of the RCP8.5 scenario. However, the annual increase in BHAT water availability at future scenarios should not be sufficient to meet the growing demand for water in the region. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate water availability based on other high-resolution climate models, in order to evaluate uncertainties, and in other regions with different supply systems that provide water to the São Paulo Metropolitan Region, identifying alternative water supply sources.