ANÁLISE DO ABASTECIMENTO HÍDRICO DE BELO HORIZONTE E REGIÃO METROPOLITANA: UMA ABORDAGEM POR MEIO DE DINÂMICA DE SISTEMAS

Rafaella Otoni Miranda de Freitas; Gisele Tessari Santos; Eduardo Trindade Bahia

doi:10.5327/Z2176-947820180281

Authors

Rafaella Otoni Miranda de Freitas Instituto de Educação Tecnológica (IETEC) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5619-7928
Gisele Tessari Santos Instituto de Educação Tecnológica (IETEC) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8768-1464
Eduardo Trindade Bahia Instituto de Educação Tecnológica (IETEC) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1237-8249

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5327/Z2176-947820180281

Keywords:

management of water resources; simulation model; water collapse; sustainability index.

Abstract

Water is an essential natural resource for life on the planet. In this context, the objective of this work was to apply the system dynamics methodology to the hydric resources management of Belo Horizonte metropolitan area to predict scenarios of hydric supplies and demands for the next 15 years. The main differential offered by this proposed model was, besides considering the eight systems that supply the region in an integrated way, to identify the moments and locals in which the hydric collapses occur. The model was validated using historical data, and three scenarios were simulated to verify the hydric collection system’s behavior in concern to a variation of supply and demand. Then, the sustainability index was calculated to analyze the vulnerability of the hydric resources along the period quantitatively. It was concluded that there are systems that already have a hydric deficit since 2016 and systems that are probable to collapse, so they have to be carefully examined by the region hydric resource managemeny.