CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF TWO MODELS OF RISK ASSESSMENT TO HUMAN HEALTH BY EXPOSURE TO LEAD IN CHILDREN FROM 0 TO 7 YEARS OF AGE

Abstract

A predictive capacity of two risk assessment models for exposure to lead (Pb) in children 0 to 7 years of age living in an area contaminated by metals was analyzed. The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) and the Public Health Assessment Process developed by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) were used. Two types of exposure scenarios were simulated, the first considered standard and the second individualized. A database generated by previous studies developed in the area including, individual values of Pb surface soil concentration, Pb household dust content and Pb contents in vegetables cultivated in backyards by the local population was used. In order to verify the estimates by two models, blood Pb values (Pb-S) obtained experimentally in children living in the study area were used. Both models, after calibration, approached to experimental mean value of Pb-S (4,25 μg.dL^-1 ATSDR; 4,17 μg.dL^-1 IEUBK; 4,56 μg.dL^-1 experimental). No significant differences were found in mean Pb-S values according to models (p= 0,393) for no consumption of vegetables scenario. It was possible to observe a moderate linear association between individual Pb-S values predicted by ATSDR model and the values calculated by IEUBK model (r = 0,60). Two models were adequate, when adjusted, to assess the risk of exposure to Pb in children, however, the IEUBK model presented a greater practicality related to resources and time reduction to predict the risk due to exposure to Pb.