SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGE,WATER DEMAND AND WATER AVAILABILITY FOR THE SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN

Hagen Koch; Anne Biewald; Stefan Liersch; José Roberto Gonçalves de Azevedo; Gerald Souza da Silva; Karolin Kölling; Peter Fischer; Robert Koch; Fred Fokko Hattermann

doi:10.5327/Z2176-947820151007

Authors

Hagen Koch Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Anne Biewald Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Stefan Liersch Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
José Roberto Gonçalves de Azevedo Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)
Gerald Souza da Silva Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE)
Karolin Kölling Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Peter Fischer Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB)
Robert Koch Technische Universität Berlin (TUB)
Fred Fokko Hattermann Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5327/Z2176-947820151007

Keywords:

São Francisco river basin; land-use; agriculture; hydrology; MAgPIE; SWIM.

Abstract

In this study, scenarios of changes in land-use patterns, agricultural
production and climate, and their effects on water demand and availability
in the São Francisco river basin (Brazil) are analysed. The global driver
population growth, economic development, and trade liberalization are
included. Using the regionalized version of a global agro-economic land- and
water use model, impacts are analysed for two scenarios: a regionalized
world with slow economic development, high population growth, and little
awareness of environmental problems (A2), and a globalized world with
low population growth, high gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and
environmental sustainability (B1). A regional ecohydrological model is used
to analyse the effect of these scenarios on water demand and availability.
The climate scenarios in general show a wetter future (years 2021 – 2050),
with wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. The water availability for
irrigated agriculture is high, while hydropower generation is declining by
3.2% (A2) and 1.7% (B1) compared to the reference.