SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGE,WATER DEMAND AND WATER AVAILABILITY FOR THE SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN
Keywords:São Francisco river basin; land-use; agriculture; hydrology; MAgPIE; SWIM.
In this study, scenarios of changes in land-use patterns, agricultural
production and climate, and their effects on water demand and availability
in the São Francisco river basin (Brazil) are analysed. The global driver
population growth, economic development, and trade liberalization are
included. Using the regionalized version of a global agro-economic land- and
water use model, impacts are analysed for two scenarios: a regionalized
world with slow economic development, high population growth, and little
awareness of environmental problems (A2), and a globalized world with
low population growth, high gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and
environmental sustainability (B1). A regional ecohydrological model is used
to analyse the effect of these scenarios on water demand and availability.
The climate scenarios in general show a wetter future (years 2021 – 2050),
with wetter rainy seasons and drier dry seasons. The water availability for
irrigated agriculture is high, while hydropower generation is declining by
3.2% (A2) and 1.7% (B1) compared to the reference.