SCENARIO FUTURE OF WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE UPPER TIETÊ RIVER BASIN

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the future behavior (near-future, of 2017–2039) of rainfall and streamflow in the Upper Tietê River Basin (BHAT). For this, the global climate model Meteorological Research Institute-Japonese Meteorological Agency (MRI-JMA) was used, for the emissions scenario A2, belonging to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). Also was used observed database of streamflow, rainfall and air temperature obtained from the National Water Agency. In order to estimate the future streamflow was established an empirical relation based on the simplified hydrological equation. Projections results indicate that BHAT may have an increase in precipitation (5.9 mm) and temperature (0.86ºC) monthly average in relation to climatology. For future streamflow is projected a rise in the spring (19.6%) and summer (13.7%) and decrease in the winter (-9%) and fall (-7%). Despite the uncertainties of projections is essential to manage water resources of the basin targeting a probable broadening of seasonal variability.